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ROI FAQ

Answers to the most common questions about CS2 ROI, expected value, and trade ups.

What does expected value (EV) mean in CS2 ROI?
Expected value (EV) is the average return from opening a case or capsule, calculated from item prices and drop rates.
How is profit chance calculated for CS2 ROI?
Profit chance is the probability that your unbox value is higher than total cost, based on live prices and drop rates.
Where do the CS2 ROI drop rates come from?
We use published drop-rate odds and item pools, then combine them with market prices to estimate ROI.
Are trade ups better than opening cases for ROI?
Trade ups can be more controlled than case openings, but ROI still depends on prices, float outcomes, and market demand.
What are the odds of getting a knife from a CS2 case?
The odds of unboxing a knife or gloves from any CS2 case are approximately 0.26%, which means roughly 1 in 385 case openings. This drop rate is the same across all CS2 cases, regardless of price or content. You can use the Skinbase ROI calculator to see whether the potential knife value makes a specific case worth opening.
What is profitability in CS2 case openings?
Profitability measures whether the average value of items you receive from opening a case is higher than the cost of the case itself. Skinbase calculates this using live marketplace prices and official drop rates. A case is considered profitable when its expected value (EV) exceeds the purchase price, though most cases have negative profitability in the long run.
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Case Opening ROI Calculator
CasesArmoryStickersCollections

Cases

Case Opening ROI Calculator

42 cases

eSports 2013 Winter Case

eSports 2013 Winter Case

ROI76%
Avg. Unbox$14.46Profit Chance24.1%
2
ROI: 75.6%
CS:GO Weapon Case 2

CS:GO Weapon Case 2

ROI79%
Avg. Unbox$18.84Profit Chance23.3%
1
ROI: 78.8%
Operation Wildfire Case

Operation Wildfire Case

ROI67%
Avg. Unbox$3.69Profit Chance13.7%
3
ROI: 66.7%
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

14 items

ROI67%
Avg. Unbox$5.02
★ Knives
Profit Chance15.7%
Total Cost$7.54
CS:GO Weapon Case 3

CS:GO Weapon Case 3

12 items

ROI65%
Avg. Unbox$9.27
★ Knives
Profit Chance14.1%
Total Cost$14.18
eSports 2014 Summer Case

eSports 2014 Summer Case

17 items

ROI62%
Avg. Unbox$9.30
★ Knives
Profit Chance13.3%
Total Cost$15.05
Glove Case

Glove Case

17 items

ROI62%
Avg. Unbox$9.14
★ Gloves
Profit Chance6.8%
Total Cost$14.81
Operation Hydra Case

Operation Hydra Case

17 items

ROI60%
Avg. Unbox$18.89
★ Gloves
Profit Chance7.3%
Total Cost$31.25
Gamma Case

Gamma Case

17 items

ROI60%
Avg. Unbox$3.14
★ Knives
Profit Chance7.3%
Total Cost$5.19
Chroma Case

Chroma Case

14 items

ROI59%
Avg. Unbox$4.01
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$6.79
Chroma 2 Case

Chroma 2 Case

15 items

ROI57%
Avg. Unbox$3.31
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.5%
Total Cost$5.85
Shadow Case

Shadow Case

16 items

ROI56%
Avg. Unbox$2.28
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.5%
Total Cost$4.07
Winter Offensive Weapon Case

Winter Offensive Weapon Case

13 items

ROI55%
Avg. Unbox$6.65
★ Knives
Profit Chance8.5%
Total Cost$12.00
Chroma 3 Case

Chroma 3 Case

17 items

ROI54%
Avg. Unbox$2.96
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$5.49
Falchion Case

Falchion Case

16 items

ROI53%
Avg. Unbox$2.11
★ Knives
Profit Chance7.3%
Total Cost$3.95
Horizon Case

Horizon Case

17 items

ROI53%
Avg. Unbox$2.12
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.4%
Total Cost$4.02
Spectrum Case

Spectrum Case

17 items

ROI53%
Avg. Unbox$3.04
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$5.78
Prisma Case

Prisma Case

17 items

ROI52%
Avg. Unbox$1.95
★ Knives
Profit Chance7.6%
Total Cost$3.73
Gamma 2 Case

Gamma 2 Case

17 items

ROI52%
Avg. Unbox$2.69
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$5.23
Huntsman Weapon Case

Huntsman Weapon Case

15 items

ROI51%
Avg. Unbox$5.33
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.5%
Total Cost$10.39
Revolver Case

Revolver Case

17 items

ROI51%
Avg. Unbox$2.52
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.6%
Total Cost$4.94
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

13 items

ROI50%
Avg. Unbox$2.94
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.9%
Total Cost$5.93
Operation Broken Fang Case

Operation Broken Fang Case

17 items

ROI48%
Avg. Unbox$4.10
★ Gloves
Profit Chance4.4%
Total Cost$8.48
Spectrum 2 Case

Spectrum 2 Case

17 items

ROI48%
Avg. Unbox$2.40
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$5.01
Gallery Case

Gallery Case

17 items

ROI47%
Avg. Unbox$1.53
★ Knives
Profit Chance5.0%
Total Cost$3.25
CS20 Case

CS20 Case

17 items

ROI46%
Avg. Unbox$1.60
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$3.46
Operation Breakout Weapon Case

Operation Breakout Weapon Case

14 items

ROI46%
Avg. Unbox$4.48
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$9.76
Shattered Web Case

Shattered Web Case

17 items

ROI45%
Avg. Unbox$3.27
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.4%
Total Cost$7.34
Snakebite Case

Snakebite Case

17 items

ROI44%
Avg. Unbox$1.31
★ Gloves
Profit Chance7.3%
Total Cost$2.95
Dreams & Nightmares Case

Dreams & Nightmares Case

17 items

ROI44%
Avg. Unbox$1.46
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$3.36
Prisma 2 Case

Prisma 2 Case

17 items

ROI43%
Avg. Unbox$1.59
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$3.71
Operation Riptide Case

Operation Riptide Case

17 items

ROI43%
Avg. Unbox$4.91
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.7%
Total Cost$11.53
Danger Zone Case

Danger Zone Case

17 items

ROI39%
Avg. Unbox$1.42
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$3.64
Fever Case

Fever Case

17 items

ROI37%
Avg. Unbox$1.12
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$3.03
Recoil Case

Recoil Case

17 items

ROI36%
Avg. Unbox$1.00
★ Gloves
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$2.78
CS:GO Weapon Case

CS:GO Weapon Case

9 items

ROI34%
Avg. Unbox$38.14
★ Knives
Profit Chance9.9%
Total Cost$112.48
Clutch Case

Clutch Case

17 items

ROI34%
Avg. Unbox$1.04
★ Gloves
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$3.06
Revolution Case

Revolution Case

17 items

ROI34%
Avg. Unbox$0.90
★ Gloves
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$2.67
Kilowatt Case

Kilowatt Case

17 items

ROI31%
Avg. Unbox$0.79
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$2.60
eSports 2013 Case

eSports 2013 Case

9 items

ROI30%
Avg. Unbox$15.66
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$51.38
Operation Bravo Case

Operation Bravo Case

15 items

ROI30%
Avg. Unbox$17.62
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.5%
Total Cost$58.80
Fracture Case

Fracture Case

17 items

ROI29%
Avg. Unbox$0.88
★ Knives
Profit Chance4.1%
Total Cost$2.97