Sticker capsule odds and expected value

High Grade

80.128%

Remarkable

16.026%

Exotic

3.205%

Extraordinary

0.641%

Regular, Glitter, Holo, Foil, Gold, Lenticular, and other variants are priced as separate outcomes where they exist. The rarity model is based on the official Chinese CS:GO container probability disclosure, which includes sticker capsule formats as well as weapon containers.

How sticker capsule ROI is calculated

A result of 100% means the estimated value equals the capsule cost before fees. If a capsule costs $2.00 and its probability-weighted sticker value is $1.20, the calculator shows 60% ROI. That is an expected return of $0.60 per $1.00 spent, or a $0.80 expected shortfall per opening. It is not a 60% chance of making a profit.

Capsule composition matters even when two capsules use the same headline rarity odds. A tier containing one valuable sticker concentrates that tier's probability in a single outcome, while a tier containing many stickers splits the same probability among them. Skinbase calculates those item-level shares before adding their price contributions, so the expected value reflects the actual pool size instead of using one generic price for each color.

ROI vs. profit chance

ROI measures the long-run, probability-weighted return from all possible stickers. Profit chance adds the probabilities of only those stickers currently worth more than the capsule price. A rare Gold or Lenticular sticker can raise expected value substantially while remaining unlikely to appear, so a capsule may rank well for ROI and still have a low chance of producing a profitable single opening.

How to compare sticker capsules

1. Step 1Choose a price provider.Use Best available to compare the lowest available listings, or select the marketplace you expect to use.
2. Step 2Compare the core figures.Review capsule cost, average unbox value, and profit chance alongside ROI.
3. Step 3Open the item breakdown.Check the stickers, variants, individual odds, and prices that drive the result.

Browse the full or compare key-operated containers with the .

Why Skinbase?

Skinbase evaluates the capsule you are actually viewing, including its sticker pool and variant structure, rather than applying one generic value to every capsule format.

• Capsule-specific probabilitiesRegular, Holo, Glitter, Foil, Gold, Lenticular, autograph, and restricted-format pools are modeled from the variants that can actually appear.
• Live prices from many providersSkinbase tracks live capsule and sticker prices across many providers. Compare a preferred marketplace or use Best available pricing for a broader market view.
• Results you can inspectOpen a capsule to inspect its ROI, average unbox value, profit chance, sticker odds, variants, and current prices.