Methodology
The Skinbase CS2 Armory Pass ROI calculator compares the expected marketplace value of Armory rewards with their estimated redemption cost. Weapon collections, charm collections, sticker collections, and case rewards have different star costs and outcome pools, so each one is evaluated with the model that matches its contents.
Skinbase first converts the stars required for a redemption into an estimated dollar cost. The current comparison model values a one-star reward at $0.32, two stars at $0.63, three stars at $0.95, and four stars at $1.26. Sticker rewards generally cost one star, case rewards two, charms three, and weapon collection pulls four. If a redeemed case must still be opened with a key, the fixed $2.50 key cost is added before ROI and profit chance are calculated.
Next, the calculator builds a probability-weighted price for every possible result. Weapon finishes are weighted by rarity and wear, with normal and StatTrak prices separated where StatTrak is available. Sticker and charm variants are assigned to their relevant rarity tiers and priced as distinct outcomes.
This is redemption ROI for a particular reward choice, not a profit estimate for an entire Armory Pass. Pass progress, play time, unused stars, and alternative redemptions are personal costs that the page cannot infer. Keeping them separate makes the displayed percentages comparable while allowing you to apply your own valuation to the pass itself.
Armory weapon collections use five skin tiers. Their published distribution is:
Common questions about CS2 armory skin return on investment.
Charm and sticker collections use a four-tier distribution:
These probabilities follow the official Chinese CS:GO container probability disclosure. Within each rarity, the tier probability is distributed across the eligible items before wear, variant, and StatTrak pricing is applied.
Expected value
EV = Σ(outcome probability × current outcome price)
Return shown
ROI = expected value ÷ total reward cost × 100
A 100% result is break-even before selling fees. If a four-star collection pull has a $1.26 estimated cost and $0.756 expected value, its ROI is 60%. That represents an average return of $0.60 per $1.00 of modeled cost, not a 60% probability of receiving a profitable skin.
ROI includes every outcome and measures the estimated long-run return. Profit chance is the combined probability of receiving an item currently worth more than the modeled star cost plus any required key. A rare Covert skin, Lenticular sticker, or high-value charm can contribute heavily to expected value while appearing very infrequently. That can produce relatively strong ROI alongside a much lower profit chance.
You can compare conventional containers in the CS2 case ROI calculator and evaluate capsule openings with the sticker capsule ROI calculator.
Armory rewards do not all use the same cost or probability model. Skinbase makes those differences visible so weapon collections, charms, stickers, and case rewards can be compared on a consistent basis.
Calculate expected returns and profit chances for CS2 Armory Pass collections. Compare charm, weapon, and sticker collections to find the best value.
ROI
55%
ROI
54%
ROI
45%
ROI
40%
ROI
37%
ROI
37%
ROI
34%
ROI
31%